Chapter 13 – Congressional Elections (490 to 510)

· Every four years , on the first Tuesday following a Monday in November, votes are cast peacefully

· More elections for more offices more frequently than any other nation

· Suffrage for all, but little more than half actually vote

· Purposes Served by Elections

o Regular free elections guarantee mass political action and enable citizens to influence actions of their gov

o Confer a legitimacy on regimes better than any other method of change

o Ensure government is accountable to people it serves

§ Electorate – citizens eligible to vote

§ Election winners claim a Mandate – A command, indicated by an electorate’s votes, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms

o Retrospective judgment – A voter’s evaluation of the party in power

§ Judgment based on performance of party in power

§ Electorate can evaluate records of officer holders better than it can predict future actions

o Prospective judgment – voter’s eval of candidate based on what he pledges to do about an issue if elected

§ Requires voter to decide what candidate will best serve his or her interests by examining the views that rivals have on different issues

§ Must spend lots of time researching, seeking info

§ Three requirements for voters

· Must have an opinion on the issue

· Must have an idea of what action, if any, the government is taking on the issue

· Must see a difference between the two parties on the issue

o Voters’ retrospective and prospective actions

§ 1972 Reelected Nixon after his success in foreign affairs (Soviet, China relations, “Vietnamization”); then, Watergate

§ 1976 Carter elected after Ford held responsible for economic recession and Nixon’s pardon

§ 1980 Carter not reelected b/c of Iranian Hostage Crisis, bad ec; someone new wanted – Reagan

§ 1984 Strong economic recovery and defense buildup lead to Reagan’s reelection

§ 1988 Cont. satisfaction w/Reagan à Bush

§ 1992 Prolonged recession, week growth in jobs, Ross Perot’s candidacy à Clinton’s election

§ 1996 Similar to 84, but with Clinton and democrats

§ 2000 not determined, should have been Gore; oh wait, it was

o Presidents are held accountable; they are rewarded and punished

o On rare occasions, off-year congressional elections can produce mandates

§ 1974; after Watergate, tidal wave of democrats produced a mandate to clean up politics

§ 1994; Clinton pushed too liberal of policy à Gingrich lead Republicans in House)

· Different Kinds of Elections – different types held at Congressional and Presidential levels

o Primary Elections – Elections in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election

§ Closed Primary – A primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote

· Healthier for party because they prevent members from influencing primaries of the opposition party

· Crossover Voting – partic in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated

· There is little evidence of Raiding – An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of another party

§ Open Primary – A primary in which party member, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote

§ Runoff Primary – A secondary primary election between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the first primary

§ Nonpartisan Primary (used in Nebraska and Louisiana in nonpresidential primaries and many cities nationwide) – A primary used to select candidates regardless of party affiliation

o General Election – Election in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices

§ Held at municipal, county, state, and national levels

§ In pres candidates, Americans look for leadership and character, foreign policy and defense issues

§ Mayor and gov candidates are chosen based on nuts-and-bolts issues (taxes, schools, roads)

§ Congressional candidates are chosen by name recognition (helps incumbents)

o Initiative, Referendum, and Recall

§ Initiative – allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to state electorate for popular vote

· CA Propisition 209 – 1996 initiative that elimi state and local affirmative action programs

§ Referendum – state legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval

§ Problems with initiatives and referendums

· Wording of question very important

· Those who choose to study and form an opinion on various questions are of a higher socio-economic class generally

· Costly to obtain necessary sigs and political action so the question appears on the ballot

· Not the voice of the people; it is the voice of the well-funded special interest groups who can afford the cost and time commitment of a major campaign

§ Recall – Removal of an incumbent from office by popular vote (“deelection”)

· Presidential Elections … methods used by state party organizations to elect national convention delegates:

o Winner-take-all primary: Candidate who wins the most votes in a state secures all of that state’s delegates. Democrats do not use it, but republicans do.

o Proportional Representation Primary: Candidates who secure a threshold percentage of votes are awarded delegates in proportion to the number of popular votes won. This system is strongly favored by democrats because it is so fair, but it can render majorities of delegates more difficult to accumulate and thus can lengthen the contest for the nomination

o Proportional Representation with bonus delegates primary (awards delegates to candidates in proportion to the popular vote won + 1 bonus delegate to the winner of each district); beauty contest with separate delegate selection (Serves as an indication of the popular sentiment for the conventions to consider as they choose actual delegate); delegate selection with no beauty contest (the primary election chooses delegates to the national conventions who are not linked on the ballot to specific presidential candidates)

o The Caucus: Party members meet in small groups throughout a state to select the party’s delegates to the national convention

· Primaries Versus Caucuses

o Shift from caucuses to primaries over the years

o Caucus

§ Oldest, most party-oriented method of choosing delegates to the national convention

§ Closed meeting of party activists

§ Late 19^th-early 20^th century; caucuses viewed by many people as elitist and anti-democratic

o Primaries

§ More democratic, open to anyone who wants to vote, so representatives of every group have a chance of winning

§ Most representative means by which to nominate presidential candidates

§ Primaries help nominate more moderate and appealing candidates (those that primary voters believe can win the election), even if he is their second or third choice = sophisticated voting

§ Primaries constitute a rigorous test for the candidates, a chance to display under pressure some of the skills needed to be a successful president

• Early primaries receive a lot of media coverage
• Regional primary – country divides in 5-6 geo areas and all states in the area would have to vote on that day
• Cut down on candidate wear and tear
• Super Tuesday (14 southern states all at once) – attempt by conservative Democrats to get an advantage
• Front-loading – tendency of states to choose an early date on the primary calendar
• Benefits the front runner since opponents have little time left
• Advantage to the candidate who can raise the most money before the nomination season begins

The Party Conventions (499)

• Out of power party holds theirs first
• Until the mid-20^th century these occurs under bosses / kingmakers (important local leaders)
• Today – like a party conclave; compromises on party leadership and policies
• Local party leaders have weaker controls over delegates
• Unit Rule – traditional party practice under which the majority of a state delegation can force the minority to vote for its candidate
• Democratic Rule – state’s delegates must be chosen in proportion to the votes cast in its primary
• # of superdelegates increased in Democratic Convention to add stability to the convention
• Superdelegates – delegate slot to D Party natl convention that is reserved for an elected party official
• Party professionals concerned with winning general election
• All D gov and 80% of congressional D are now inc. as voting delegates at the convention

National Candidates and Issues (500)

• Political perceptions now affected by national candidates and issues
• Issues more important to new, issue-oriented activists than party professionals

The News Media (500)

• Transform national conventions into political extravaganzas for TV audiences
• Preempt convention by tracking delegates
• TV prime time shapes the convention
• Important, moving speakers scheduled to speak during prime time, etc
• Only one hour covered now
• Pros and Cons – helped Bush gain the lead from a 17pt deficit but can expose rifts in a party

Who are the Delegates? (501)

• Both parties have delegates from an elite group (higher income, educational levels)
• Democrat Dels younger
• Repub more likely Af. Amer., female, divorced, single, or labor union member
• Reflects differences in constituencies and decisions by party leaders
• Each party’s delegates also exemplify philosophical gulf between parties; more ideological too
• D del to the left of most party’s voters

The Electoral College: How Pres are Elected (503)

• Electoral College – reps from each state who cast final ballots that actually elect the Pres
• Compromise between framers between ideas of selection by Congress or by direct election
• Elector – member of the electoral college; chosen by methods differing by state
• Tie decided by the Senate
• Winner used to be Pres, runner-up VP
• Made more sense in the Framers time with only one party, consensus-based, multi-candidate system

The Electoral College in the 19^th Century (504)

• Jefferson and Burr ran with understanding Jeff be Pres and Burr be runner-up and VP
• Electoral college gave one vote to Jeff and the other to Burr and it ended tied
• The tie was broken by House by an amendment (12^th) put forth to prevent a repeat
• 12^th gives each elector one vote and three candidates; requires majority or House gets to decide
• House decides twice (once in favor of the one with fewer electoral votes) and Harrison won Pres with 100k less popular votes

The Electoral College in the 20^th and 21^st Centuries (505)

• Several times popular votes nearly were opposite of electoral votes
• Most recent in 2000 led to several major reform ideas

Abolition (506)

• Get rid of electoral college and have Pres selected by popular vote
• Bush was 4^th Pres selected without majority of popular vote
• Probably wouldn’t pass in the Senate (smaller states would be giving up representation due to lower populations)
• Also, a recount in a close election would be monstrous in a national election

Congressional District Plan (506)

• Each candidate would get 1 electoral vote for each Congressional district he or she wins in a state
• Winner of overall popular vote would get two bonus votes (one for each senator) for that state
• Could be adopted w/o constitutional amendment
• Consequence of state-by-state adoption would result in patchwork of electoral methods

Keep the College, Abolish the Electors (507)

• Keep it as a statistical electoral device
• Remove their voting power
• Protect against faithless electors (those who choose to vote for the candidate not voted for by the state)

Patterns of Presidential Elections (507)

Party Realignments (507)

• Rare; usually gradual but occasionally very swift and dramatic
• Party Realignment – shifting of party coalition groupings in the electorate that remains in place for several elections
• Spaced about 36 years apart, at least until recently
• Been six so far in the US; three tumultuous eras
• Pre-Civil War; Whig Party gradually dissolved and Repub party develops and wins Pres
• Populist radicalization of Dem party in 1890s à Repub greatly strengthen their majority status
• Great Depression propelled Dem to power
• Accomplished in two main ways
• Converted from one party to the other by issues and candidates of the time
• New voters mobilized into actions (immigrants, young, prev nonvoters …)
• Critical Election – election that signals a party realignment through voter polarization around new issues

Secular Realignment (509)

• Secular Realignment – gradual rearrangement of party coalitions due to demographic shifts rather than political shocks
• Dealignment is when parties do not hold great meaning and shifting is taken lightly
• No major realignments since the depression