Congressional Elections

Congressional Elections (510)

The Incumbency Advantage (510)

This $ directly/indirectly promotes the legislator by means of mass mailings and constituency services:

Assistance provided by the member to voters in need
i.e. find lost social sec. check, helping vets receive benefits, finding internship for a college student

Each legislator is also highly visible in his district (easy access to media and events)
Ability of an office holder to fend off challenges from strong opposition candidates (“scare-off effect”)

High name recog, large war chests, staff attached to leg. offices, exp in running a successful campaign
Challenger face uphill battle, better to wait for incumbent to retire

Reelect rates for senators are high; for the House, the reelection rate is lower – ~88%

Redistricting, Scandals, and Coattails (lost reelection bids) (511)

Redistricting (512) – redrawing districts to reflect inc or dec in seats allotted to the states, as well as population shifts within state

Every ten years by U.S. Census (first time 1790)
Political process, used in many cases by the majority to insure formation of voting districts conducive to retaining or expanding their majority (some states will appoint nonpartisan commissions to draw the lines)
Gerrymandering – the legislative process though which the majority party in each statehouse tries to assure that the maximum number of representatives from its political party can be elected to Congress though the redrawing of legislative districts.

Difficult to prove, but after 2000 Census/2002 redistricting, courts threw out legislative maps in 6 states

Congressional as well as state legislative districts must be apportioned on the basis of population
Gerrymandering a district to dilute minority strength is illegal under the Voting Rights Act of 1965
Redrawing districts for obvious racial purposes to enhance minority representation is constitutional if race is not the “predominant” factor over other factors that are part of traditional redistricting, inc. compactness

Software makes it easier to draw politically reliable electoral maps, which have an adverse impact on competitiveness
“Individual ambition generally outweighs partisan loyalty” – Paul Gronke

Of voting for another party’s lines will help individual members obtain higher office, they will vote that way

For the dominant party, redistricting is often used to make its incumbents safer
Often effects of redistricting are masked by incumbency effect, but as Congressmen retire newly created favorable districts have an impact on the balance of power

Scandals (514)

Financial impropriety (bribes and payoffs) à personal improprieties (sexual escapades)
Gray Davis (“Money for favors”) and Gary Condit (Chandra Levy)

Coattails (514)

Successful pres candidates usually carry into office congressional candidates of the same party
There has been a decline in the strength of the coattail effect in modern ages

Midterm Congressional Elections (515)

Midterm Elections – Elections that take place in the middle of a presidential term
Problems and tribulations of gov normally cost a president some popularity, alienate key groups, or cause the public to want to send the president a message of one sort or another (1974 Watergate, 1982 economic recession, etc.)
There is a party tendency to punish the pres party much more severely in its 6^th year – retrospective voting
Senate elections are less inclined to follow these patterns
Recently, midterm elections have had a much lower voter turnout
1994 midterm election – Dem pres lost both houses because Rep blamed the failures of the gov on a unified Dem gov
1998 midterm election – loss of 5 Rep seats toppled Speaker Gingrich when the Rep were expected to gain seats

The 2002 Midterm Elections (516)

2002 midterm election was the 1^st since 1934 that a first term pres gained seats for his party in the midterm election
War on terror and admin’s focus on the impending war w/Iraq constrained the voice of opposition by monopolizing the political agenda preventing Dems from gaining ground on the weak econ, corp scandals, and domestic issues
DC area sniper was also distracting
After 2000 election 50-50, then Jeffords defected and became a Rep, giving the Dem the majority
Governships 26 republican vs. 24 democratic
Unique for delivering big wins for the pres and for the unusual, unexpected conditions that preceded a # of the contests

MN Senator Wellstone died in plane crash; Rep won because Wellstone’s funeral was seen as a Dem rally
Dem NJ Senator withdrew after a wave of criticism over prof ethics, and later race entering Dem won

Control by the Rep over the two branches of elected gov should hasten the flow of legis business and improve the ability of the White House to promote and control the agenda