Chapter 11 – What is Public Opinion?

Chapter Issues:

1. Define public opinion

2. Early efforts to influence / measure public opinion

3. Political socialization

4. Political opinion formation

5. Measuring public opinion

6. Pollings affects on politicians

7. How election forecasting has changed over time

What is Public Opinion (399)

• Public Opinion – what the public thinks about a particular issue
• Public Opinion Polls – surveys from a sample of citizens to estimate the beliefs of the whole population
• Even short-term public opinion must be considered by politicians according to Gallup
• George Gallup – founder of modern-day polling
• Public opinion difficult to determine because it changes quickly

Early Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion (400)

• Early attempts: Common Sense and Crisis (Paine) and later The Federalist Papers
• Uncle Tom’s Cabin (Beecher) a powerful statement against slavery; helped solidify northern support for the Civil War
• WWI – people did not believe public opinion really mattered; Wilson disagreed and creates the Committee on Public Op
• Comm used pamphlets, posters, etc to swing public opinion behind a US war effort

Early Efforts to Measure Public Opinion (401)

• Some tried surveys or polls; became important as gathering and interpreting data methods improved

Early Election Forecasting (401)

• 1824 – PA newspaper tries to predict Pres winner
• 1883 – Boston Globe polls voters at precinct as they exit booths
• 1916 – Literary Digest mails postcards to potential voters in an effort to guess election outcomes
• Got millions of responses and predicted every election from 1920 to 1932
• This method is straw polls – unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion on a wide variety of issues

What Went Wrong (402)

• Errors of the Literary Digest
• Drawn from telephone directories and car owners; oversampled the upper and middle class (more repub)
• Timing – questionnaire mailed in early Sept; sentiment changes
• Self-Election – only highly motivated individuals send back the cards (only 22%)
• Modern rule: “one cannot allow the respondents to select themselves into the sample”
• Gallup predicted the 1936 election

Polling Matures (403)

• Polling matures as businesses invest in it to get better info for marketing
• Gallup a very good indicator, but ultimately they measure the popular vote, not the electoral vote

Political Socialization and Other Factors That Influence Opinion Formation (404)

• Political Socialization (PS for these notes) – process through an individual acquires political orientation, beliefs, and values
• The American Voter (’60) – showed how class coalitions were the dominant force in Pres elections
• Led to National Election Study (NES)
• Conducted by Center for Political Studies of the Institute for Social Research at the U of Michigan
• Focuses on political attitudes and behavior
• Include Qs not related to politics (church attendance, etc)

The Family (405)

• Influences political orientation through communication and receptivity
• Children spend much time with parents and learn their parents’ political values

School and Peers (405)

• Mixed findings of influence of schools on PS process
• Subtle things like the Pledge and flags inspire patriotism
• 1994 – Kids Voting USA – taught children about voting; 2M turnout annually; voter partic up 3-5% in communities where prog operates
• The Weekly Reader – elem school nationwide use this; fosters political awareness
• Peer group very important
• High school imposes community service (positive impact on political partic in the long run) and US affairs courses
• College – teaching style change; critical thinking; liberalizes students

The Mass Media (407)

• Late nights shows and MTV now cover elections and more adults and especially young people get their info here
• In 2000 all candidates began to use the Internet
• 42% of voters under 30 began to use internet as major source of info for campaign

Social Groups (408)

• Religion, education level, income, race – gender and race increasingly important factors

Religion

• Source of political mobilization
• Protestants most conservative; Jews most liberal; Catholics vote more Democratic
• Religious cleavage emerging – conservative/evangelical Christians b/c more repub than less religious Protestants

Race and Ethnicity (409)

• Blacks distrust gov more than whites
• Direction of blacks on some hot issues the reverse of whites direction (like whites believe police are fair more often)
• Also seen in abortion; vouchers see very little difference though
• 94% Hispanics favor gov sponsored health insurance, bilingual education, liberal immig policies (other races do not)

Gender (410)

• Women have more negative views on military intervention (though began to disappear since late 90s)
• Also more positive about social-welfare concerns (education, juvenile justice, capital punishment, environment)
• Some suggest women more “nurture” and this leads them to more liberal attitudes on family or safety issues
• Women more likely to be Democrat

Age (412)

• Senior citizens are a potent political force (esp. in Fl)
• Vote to defeat school tax inc.
• Vote to pass tax breaks for themselves
• Favor increase gov’t role in area of medical insurance and oppose cuts in Social Security
• “Graying of America” – fastest growing group in America
• Youth vote (18-24) needs to be mobilized, consider government far too controlling, so they don’t care

Region (413)

• Waves of immigrants w/different religious customs and traditions have settled in areas hospitable to their way of life
• South since Civil War
• Still lags w/respect to civil rights
• Favors state power
• More religious (Protestant) = more republican
• West – avoid city life/anti-government bias

The Impact of Events (414)

• Key political events play an important role in one’s political socialization
• JFK, Oklahoma City Bombing, 9/11, Nixon’s resignation
• Lead to either patriotism or distrust in government

How We Form Political Opinions

• Personal Benefits (416)

o “I” centered – we choose policies that best benefit us personally

§ “People vote with their pocketbooks” àno new taxes

§ African Amer. are pro – strong civil rights laws and affirmative action programs

o Policies that don’t affect us individually (prostitution, death penalty) are moral issues that are decided based on underlying values we have acquired

o It is difficult to form an opinion about policies that don’t affect us personally, public opinion is volatile in the wake of new info (i.e. w/respect to foreign affairs)

• Political knowledge (416)

o Political participation and political knowledge “affect each other reciprocally” – inc. in one à inc. in the other

o Amer. level of knowledge of history and politics is low despite the high literacy rate

o Lack of historical perspective hurts many Amer.’s understanding of current political events

o Amer. know very little about foreign policy, geography

o Gender (females do worse), age (young do worse) are also factors

o Amer. public plays a large limited role in the democratic process; they do not know everything about every candidate and issues, but they know enough to try to impose their views and values as to the general direction the nations should take

o Generizable knowledge is enough to make democracy work

§ Policy stands of parties is clearer when the stands are more distinct

§ Perception of candidates when the candidates contrast more sharply

· Cues from Leaders (418)

o Low levels of knowledge can lead to rapid opinion shifts on issues, so political leaders and members of the mass media can dramatically affect public opinion

o This is especially true of the president (bully pulpit) and especially in the area of foreign affairs

o Who is leading? (President or public – Clinton was often criticized for governing by public opinion poll)

How We Measure Public Opinion (418)

· Traditional public opinion polls

o How people know of a candidate, if a candidate has a chance of beating an incumbent, gauge effectiveness of particular ads, create favorable legislative environments for presidential agenda, win reelection, be judged fairly by historians

o Key phases

§ Determining the content and phrasing of the questions

· Neutral vs. putting someone of the spot

· Interest groups adjust so poll yields particular results

· Emotional issues very dependent on wording

§ Selecting the sample

· Pollsters must determine universe/entire group they whose attitudes wish to measure

· Random Sampling – a method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected (not possible to do perfectly)

§ Nonstratified Sampling

· Literary Digest – oversampling of rich (those w/cars and in phone book during depression) led them to choose FDR’s opponent

· Straw poles used by TV news and online surveys is unrepresentative sampling

· Quota samples are more reliable than straw polls because they take into account known statistics about the demographics of a city

§ Stratified sampling – A variation of random sampling; census data are used to divide a country into four sampling regions. Sets of countries and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportions to the total national population

· Twenty respondents from each primary sampling unit are selected

· Key – cannot let people volunteer

· Contacting respondents

o Telephone polls

§ Random digit dial surveys

§ Inaccuracy – timing (who eats/works when?)

o In-Person Polls

§ Inaccuracy – unintended influence of questioner/pollster

· Political Polls

o Push Polls – “Polls” taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate

§ “If you knew Candidate X beat his wife, would you vote for him?

§ Pollsters don’t even taken down responses

§ Larger “sample” than other polls – calls made to thousands

o Tracking polls – Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support

§ Monitor short-term campaign developments and effects of campaign strategies

§ Usually combines w/usual statistic average to boost sample size, statistical reliability

o Exit Polls – Poll conducted at selected polling places on Election Day

§ Every 10^th voter polled

§ Used by TV networks to predict outcome

§ 1980 – Election called 3 hours early, causing voters not to go to polls (election “called,” over) à TV vowed not to predict results until all polling places closed à Unintentionally broken in Fl in 2000 because of time zone change in panhandle

· Shortcomings of Polling

o Voter News Service (VNS) – cost-saving measure for all the networks

§ Problems in 2000 election in Fl – plagues with errors (under and overestimates of certain groups – absentee ballots, no telephone surveys, overuse of Jeb’s campaign as predictor, etc.)

§ Unable to correct itself by 2002 (or even project winners) à Disbanded

o Sampling Error or margin of error – A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll (difference between actual and sample)

§ Standard samples of 1000-1500 contain 3% error

§ Intro of tracking polls in 1992 brought more criticism

§ Time period sample always a problem (Saturdays and 5-9 PM = too republican)

§ Likely voters instead of registered voters

· Limited Respondent Options

o How do you like this class? (Like or dislike) – full sentiment not tapped

· Lack of information

o Inaccurate when they attempt to gauge attitudes about issues that some or even many individuals don’t care about or have little info about (i.e. electoral college before 2000 election)

o Accurate ones uses filter questions that ask whether or not the polled have thought about the question

· Intensity

o Polls cannot read which issues are more important

How Polling and Pulic Opinion Affect Politicians, Politics, and Policy

· Federalist Papers “all government rests on public opinion”

o As a result, public opinion influences the actions of politicians and public officials

· Politicians and government officials spend millions each year taking the pulse of the public

· According to political scientist Benjamin Ginsburg, “the data reported by opinion polls are actually the product of an interplay between opinion and the survey instrument.” à Polls can help transform public opinion

· Difficult to say to what degree politician rely on polls

o Some argue that polls weaken democracy

o Politicians can say they have considered public opinion when they haven’t

o Ginsburg also argues that democracy is better served by reliance on telephone calls and letters – active signs of interest – than on the passive voice of public opinion

o Gallup retorted, “One might as well insist that a thermometer makes weather”

· Polls can clearly distort the election process

o Bandwagon effect – an early victory may persuade others to jump on the bandwagon

o Underdog effect – early bad turnout can make one candidate appear the underdog